2027: APC Is The Party To Beat But The Election Is Far From Won
By Otunba (Dr.) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
National Chairman AATSG | Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group
Sunday 23rd August 2026
Politics is settled by votes, not by noise. For that reason, anyone trying to make sense of Nigeria’s road to the 2027 presidential election has to focus on what Nigerians have actually done at the ballot box.
The eight governorship elections held since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office offer useful evidence. Still, evidence has to be read with care. The results show that the All Progressives Congress remains Nigeria’s most formidable single political organisation. They do not, however, establish that the 2027 presidential election is already in the bag. That distinction matters.
The Numbers Cannot Simply Be Dismissed
Across Bayelsa, Imo, Kogi, Edo, Ondo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun, APC won five of the eight governorship elections. It won Imo, Kogi, Edo, Ondo and Ekiti. The PDP won Bayelsa, APGA won Anambra, while Accord won Osun.
Perhaps even more telling than the five victories is that APC came either first or second in every one of these elections. Across the eight contests, APC candidates secured roughly 2.62 million of nearly 4.88 million total votes cast, about 53.7 per cent. From the South-East to the South-West, South-South and North-Central, the party still has structures capable of competing seriously for political power.
The opposition would therefore be making a strategic error if it mistook public dissatisfaction for the disappearance of APC’s electoral machinery. The two are not the same thing.
But Eight Governorship Elections Are Not One Presidential Election
This is where triumphalism gets dangerous. A governorship election is fundamentally different from a presidential election. Governorship contests are shaped by incumbency, local personalities, ethnic considerations, traditional alliances, candidate popularity, state political structures and peculiar local conditions.
Consider Anambra. Governor Charles Soludo and APGA overwhelmed APC. Yet Soludo’s political relationship with President Tinubu does not automatically mean every person who voted for Soludo will vote for Tinubu in 2027. Votes do not permanently belong to governors. They belong to citizens.
Dataphyte’s review of presidential outcomes between 1999 and 2023 shows that the relationship between governorship dominance and presidential success has weakened considerably since 2015. In 2023, APC controlled 21 states before the election yet won only 12 in the presidential contest.
APC’s Greatest Advantage May Actually Be Opposition Fragmentation
The greatest advantage President Tinubu currently has may not necessarily be overwhelming public approval. It may be the inability of his opponents to build a broad enough alternative coalition.
Nigeria saw precisely this dynamic in 2023: Tinubu won with 36.61 per cent (8.79 million votes), while Atiku Abubakar took 29.07 per cent, Peter Obi 25.40 per cent and Rabiu Kwankwaso 6.23 per cent.
If several credible opposition candidates split the anti-incumbent vote while APC holds together its core electoral coalition, President Tinubu could win without securing anything close to an overwhelming majority.
APC Also Has Reasons To Be Cautious
The governing party should nonetheless resist the temptation to treat its five victories as proof of inevitable national dominance.
Osun offers an immediate warning. APC lost a governorship election in the South-West despite controlling the Federal Government. Anambra offers another: APGA defeated APC overwhelmingly. Bayelsa shows yet another reality: PDP remained capable of defending territory against the governing party.
No ruling party has been immune from reversal. The PDP’s long dominance ended in 2015. Voter turnout has fallen sharply from over 50 per cent in earlier cycles to roughly 27 per cent in 2023, making mobilisation, rather than mere structural advantage, decisive.
The Economy Will Eventually Enter the Ballot Box
The most important variable may ultimately have little to do with these eight governorship elections. It will be the condition of Nigerian households. By the time Nigerians head toward the presidential election, millions of voters will ask a very simple question: “Is my life better than it was four years ago?”
If inflation continues moderating, food prices stabilise, the naira becomes more predictable, employment expands, infrastructure improves and purchasing power begins recovering meaningfully, President Tinubu’s political position could strengthen considerably.
Three Possible Roads To 2027
- A fragmented opposition: If the opposition enters divided while APC retains most governors, President Tinubu would have a substantial structural advantage.
- A consolidated opposition: If major opposition forces unite around one ticket, the electoral arithmetic changes considerably.
- Visible economic recovery: If Nigerians begin to experience significant improvements in purchasing power, the President’s incumbency advantage would become much stronger.
My Projection
Based on the political evidence available today, APC should be regarded as the party to beat in 2027. But being the party to beat is not the same thing as having already won.
The eight governorship elections establish three propositions at once: APC remains powerful. APC remains geographically competitive. APC remains beatable.
Governments are defeated when dissatisfaction is converted into organisation, organisation into coalition, coalition into turnout and turnout into properly protected votes.
The Real Battle
To the opposition, the eight elections say: Do not underestimate APC.
To APC, they say: Do not underestimate the electorate.
And to Nigerians, they show something perhaps even more important: 2027 is not predetermined.
In a democracy, the final verdict belongs neither to governors nor political parties. It belongs to the Nigerian electorate.
About the Author: Otunba (Dr.) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo is the National Chairman of AATSG - Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group.
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